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Abstract
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Article Information:
The Combination Forecasting Model of Grain Production Based on Stepwise Regression Method and RBF Neural Network
Lihua Yang and Baolin Li
Corresponding Author: Baolin Li
Submitted: November 21, 2014
Accepted: January 8, 2015
Published: April 10, 2015 |
Abstract:
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In order to improve the accuracy of grain production forecasting, this study proposed a new combination forecasting model, the model combined stepwise regression method with RBF neural network by assigning proper weights using inverse variance method. By comparing different criteria, the result indicates that the combination forecasting model is superior to other models. The performance of the models is measured using three types of error measurement, which are Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Theil Inequality Coefficient (Theil IC) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The model with smallest value of MAPE, Theil IC and RMSE stands out to be the best model in predicting the grain production. Based on the MAPE, Theil IC and RMSE evaluation criteria, the combination model can reduce the forecasting error and has high prediction accuracy in grain production forecasting, making the decision more scientific and rational.
Key words: Combination forecasting, grain production forecasting, RBF neural network, stepwise regression method, , ,
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Cite this Reference:
Lihua Yang and Baolin Li, . The Combination Forecasting Model of Grain Production Based on Stepwise Regression Method and RBF Neural Network. Advance Journal of Food Science and Technology, (11): 891-895.
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ISSN (Online): 2042-4876
ISSN (Print): 2042-4868 |
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