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2012 (Vol. 4, Issue: 14)
Article Information:

Risk Analysis Simulation Model of Economic Evaluation in Hydroelectric Engineering Project

Li Cunbin, Li Xian and Wu Minxia
Corresponding Author:  Li Xian 

Key words:  Economic evaluation, hydropower project, net present value, risk analysis, simulation model, ,
Vol. 4 , (14): 2222-2226
Submitted Accepted Published
March 10, 2012 April 04, 2012 July 15, 2012

In this study, we propose a risk analysis simulation model for economic evaluation of hydroelectric engineering project. This model takes annual energy outputs as risk elements. It submits to Pearson-III distribution similar with the annual runoff. Take data from three typical years to estimate the distribution parameters and then yearly benefits can be simulated in given period. By discounting all the annual benefits to their present values and summing them up, the total benefit present value is worked out. Simulating the process for a large number of times, the probability distribution is obtained. And the Net Present Value (NPV) distribution can be figured out as well.
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  Cite this Reference:
Li Cunbin, Li Xian and Wu Minxia, 2012. Risk Analysis Simulation Model of Economic Evaluation in Hydroelectric Engineering Project.  Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, 4(14): 2222-2226.
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ISSN (Online):  2040-7467
ISSN (Print):   2040-7459
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