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2012 (Vol. 4, Issue: 21)
Article Information:

SPI-based Regional Drought Prediction Using Weighted Markov Chain Model

Junfei Chen and Yang Yang
Corresponding Author:  Junfei Chen 

Key words:  Anhui province , drought prediction, Markov chain, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), , ,
Vol. 4 , (21): 4293-4298
Submitted Accepted Published
February 16, 2012 March 15, 2012 November 01, 2012

Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters in China. Drought disasters occur frequently and caused huge economic loss in recently. In this paper, a drought prediction model based on weighted Markov Chain is put forward. An application is demonstrated by Anhui province of Huaihe River in China. Based on the precipitation data during 1958-2006 at monthly scale, the different time scales Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is computed and the occurrence frequency of extreme drought, severe drought, moderate drought, slight drought and non-drought is obtained. The prediction of SPI is conducted by weighted Markov Chain model and the prediction accuracy is computed for the SPI of different time scales. The results show that weighted Markov Chain model is an effective tool for drought prediction and can provide decision-making for regional drought management.
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  Cite this Reference:
Junfei Chen and Yang Yang, 2012. SPI-based Regional Drought Prediction Using Weighted Markov Chain Model.  Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, 4(21): 4293-4298.
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ISSN (Online):  2040-7467
ISSN (Print):   2040-7459
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