Abstract
|
Article Information:
Traffic Demand Forecast of Road in Kigali, Rwanda
Zhang Chao, Cao Peng and Li Jianbo
Corresponding Author: Zhang Chao
Submitted: May 15, 2012
Accepted: June 08, 2012
Published: January 11, 2013 |
Abstract:
|
Accurate forecasting of traffic demand is one of the most important issues in the feasibility study on
highway projects. The existing traffic forecasting models, to some extent, have the problem of limited accuracy. In
this study, two widely used methods which are Elastic Coefficient Method (ECM) and Motorized Travel Frequency
Method (MTFM) were comprehensively applied to forecast the traffic volume in Kigali, Rwanda. And Comparative
analysis was made between the forecasting result and the actual survey traffic result in the project’s future years.
Compared with the actual survey result, the predicted result of ECM is larger and relative error is 10.49%. The result
of MTFM is smaller and relative error is -7.11%. While the weighted average of above methods is closer to the
actual result with a relative error in the interval of -5.00 to 5.00%. The research has shown that the combined
forecast method proposed in this study, which can make up the defects in accuracy of single model, is easy to
operate and owns more accuracy in traffic prediction. This study has suggested that proper combination of several
methods would be an advisable trend for the traffic demand forecasting.
Key words: Elastic coefficient method, motorized travel frequency method, traffic demand forecast, , , ,
|
Abstract
|
PDF
|
HTML |
|
Cite this Reference:
Zhang Chao, Cao Peng and Li Jianbo, . Traffic Demand Forecast of Road in Kigali, Rwanda. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, (02): 546-552.
|
|
|
|
|
ISSN (Online): 2040-7467
ISSN (Print): 2040-7459 |
|
Information |
|
|
|
Sales & Services |
|
|
|