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Abstract
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Article Information:
Neural Network Based STLF Model to Study the Seasonal Impact of Weather and Exogenous Variables
Muhammad Qamar Raza, Zuhairi Baharudin, Badar-Ul-Islam, Mohd. Azman Zakariya and Mohd Haris Md Khir
Corresponding Author: Muhammad Qamar Raza
Submitted: December 26, 2012
Accepted: March 14, 2013
Published: November 10, 2013 |
Abstract:
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Load forecasting is very essential for efficient and reliable operation of the power system. Uncertainties of weather behavior significantly affect the prediction accuracy, which increases the operational cost. In this study, neural network (NN) based 168 hours ahead short term load forecast (STLF) model is proposed to study seasonal impact of calendar year. The affect of the model inputs such as, weather variables, calendar events and type of a day on load demand is considered to enhance the forecast accuracy. The weight update equations of gradient descent algorithm are derived and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used as performance index. The performance of NN is measured in terms of confidence interval, which is based on training, testing, validation and cumulative impact of these phases. The simulations result shows that the forecast accuracy is affected by seasonal variation of input data.
Key words: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), calendar events, gradient based algorithm, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), weather variables, ,
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Cite this Reference:
Muhammad Qamar Raza, Zuhairi Baharudin, Badar-Ul-Islam, Mohd. Azman Zakariya and Mohd Haris Md Khir, . Neural Network Based STLF Model to Study the Seasonal Impact of Weather and Exogenous Variables. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, (20): 3729-3735.
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ISSN (Online): 2040-7467
ISSN (Print): 2040-7459 |
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