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Abstract
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Article Information:
Forecasting of Niger Grain Production and Harvested Area
Seydou Zakari and Liu Ying
Corresponding Author: Seydou Zakari
Submitted: May 21, 2012
Accepted: June 08, 2012
Published: July 15, 2012 |
Abstract:
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Niger agriculture is predominantly rain-fed and remains the main source of income for large
population. Despite its importance in Niger economy, agriculture sector is still traditional and largely
affected by severe weather conditions. High population growth which experienced Niger continues to
increase pressure on limited land resulting in extension of crop production on marginal land unfavorable for
agriculture. The fact that Niger agriculture is rain-fed is behind the country vulnerability to food insecurity.
The main purpose of this study is to forecast Niger grain production and harvested Areas and for the two
main staple crops (Millet and Sorghum) using ARIMA model. The time series data of production and
harvested area covering the period 1970-2010 were used in the study. The findings showed that the total
harvested Area and total grain production would be 21317.4 thousand of ha and 12677.9 thousand tons in
2030, respectively. The model also showed that Millet and Sorghum production would be 4503 thousand
tons and 1574.8 tons, respectively at the same period. The results of study are expected to help Niger
authorities to build strong strategy in reducing population’s vulnerability to food insecurity and make
policies with regard to relative price structure, production and consumption.
Key words: Area harvested, ARIMA , forecasting, grain, millet, Niger, sorghum, production
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Cite this Reference:
Seydou Zakari and Liu Ying, . Forecasting of Niger Grain Production and Harvested Area. Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, (4): 308-313.
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ISSN (Online): 2041-3890
ISSN (Print): 2041-3882 |
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