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Abstract
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Article Information:
Risk Assessment on Drought Disaster in China Based on Integrative Cloud Model
Junfei Chen, Shufang Zhao, Quanxi Shao and Huimin Wang
Corresponding Author: Junfei Chen
Submitted: December 10, 2011
Accepted: January 21, 2012
Published: May 01, 2012 |
Abstract:
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This study promotes cloud model for risk assessment of drought disaster. Cloud model is an effective
tool in uncertain transforming between qualitative concepts and their quantitative expressions. Cloud is
expressed by a concept with three quantitative characteristics of expectation, entropy and hyper entropy and
the mapping between qualitative and quantitative is realized. In this study, considering the fuzziness and
uncertainty of drought disaster, we established the comprehensive cloudy model based on entropy weight
method for evaluating the risk of drought disaster. The disaster-affected rate and disaster-damaged rate are
selected as the evaluation indices of drought degree. The model is applied to assess the drought disaster risk
in China. The BP neural network, hard division method and integrative cloud model are compared, and the
integrative cloud model is shown better for evaluating drought risk. This study shows that risk assessment of
drought disaster based on cloud model is feasible and effective and can provide decision-making for the risk
assessment of drought disaster.
Key words: Cloud model, drought disaster, index system, risk assessment, , ,
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Cite this Reference:
Junfei Chen, Shufang Zhao, Quanxi Shao and Huimin Wang, . Risk Assessment on Drought Disaster in China Based on Integrative Cloud Model. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, (09): 1137-1146.
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ISSN (Online): 2040-7467
ISSN (Print): 2040-7459 |
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