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Abstract
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Article Information:
Risk Analysis Simulation Model of Economic Evaluation in Hydroelectric Engineering Project
Li Cunbin, Li Xian and Wu Minxia
Corresponding Author: Li Xian
Submitted: March 10, 2012
Accepted: April 04, 2012
Published: July 15, 2012 |
Abstract:
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In this study, we propose a risk analysis simulation model for economic evaluation of hydroelectric
engineering project. This model takes annual energy outputs as risk elements. It submits to Pearson-III
distribution similar with the annual runoff. Take data from three typical years to estimate the distribution
parameters and then yearly benefits can be simulated in given period. By discounting all the annual benefits
to their present values and summing them up, the total benefit present value is worked out. Simulating the
process for a large number of times, the probability distribution is obtained. And the Net Present Value (NPV)
distribution can be figured out as well.
Key words: Economic evaluation, hydropower project, net present value, risk analysis, simulation model, ,
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Abstract
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Cite this Reference:
Li Cunbin, Li Xian and Wu Minxia, . Risk Analysis Simulation Model of Economic Evaluation in Hydroelectric Engineering Project. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, (14): 2222-2226.
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ISSN (Online): 2040-7467
ISSN (Print): 2040-7459 |
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