Abstract

Derived by the demand of domestic economy and forest products export, timber import shows the features of high concentration and strong dependence. Thus the risk of China's timber import significantly increases. Based on SWI Index, we construct the short-term and long-term timber risk index from resource risk, country risk, market risk, transportation risk etc. Using this index, we make a more comprehensive risk assessment and find out the trend and factors of risk. The results of index construction and estimation indicate that China's timber import generally shows the trend from high risk to low risk. Besides, it also points out that the majority of new timber-importing countries are those developing countries with high country risk and high resources risk. These factors may cause considerable potential risks. Finally, the study gives policy recommendations for reducing the risk of timber import.

Keywords:

RTML, RTMS, SWI index, timber import,

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Competing interests

The authors have no competing interests.

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