Abstract

To build effective grain yield prediction system and predict its trend scientifically, this study, on the basis of statistics, prognostics and agricultural economics, explains and functions grey system theory. As a new method, grey system still has many shortages. On the basis of comparison in correlative prediction, we propose GM (1, 1) grey prediction method by modifying ends to improve predictive precisions. Besides, combining with historic data during 2000-2009, predict, summary and propose the research future. Research indicates, whether theoretic basis or practice, grey model is more useful and convenient. It predicts the yield in future 5 years, the increasing speed will decrease. The increasing yield is 5-6 kilos per person, less than 8-10 kilos per person during 2003-2009. Surely, grain industry includes many son industries, such as rice, corn and wheat. The biggest son industry should be found to give different financial support, in order to eliminate errors. The innovation is to solve time responding function and incandesce equation of end residual sequence of GM (1, 1) model, to eliminate error. Besides, analyze practical examples to indicate its value in economic prediction and provide references for relative areas.

Keywords:

Grain yield, GM (1, 1), model, prediction, residual modification,

References

Competing interests

The authors have no competing interests.

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Copyright

The authors have no competing interests.