Abstract

In this study risk assessment is carried out to estimate the probability and magnitude of risk due to the unexpected system failure by considering different repair assumptions for repairable system. In order to measure the risk for different repair assumptions, the probability of failures and consequences are required. The probability of failure estimated using parametric Recurrent Data Analysis (RDA) approach while the consequences of failure analyzed based on reported data. Gas Turbine (GT) system was taken as a case study to verify the model. The results indicated that perfect repair assumption leads to minimum risk compared to imperfect and minimal repair assumptions. Based on results it was concluded that the maintenance team needs to follow perfect repair to mitigate the risk each time a failure happens.

Keywords:

Parametric Recurrent Data Analysis (RDA), repairable system, repair assumptions, risk assessment,

References

1. Carazas, F.G. and G.F.M. Souza, 2010. Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment. Energy, 35(2): 964-975.
   CrossRef    
2. Crow, L.H., 1990. Evaluating the reliability of repairable systems. Proceeding of the IEEE Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium.
   CrossRef    
3. Doyen, L., 2005. Repair efficiency estimation in the ARI1 imperfect repair model. Mod. Statist. Math. Meth. Reliabil., 10: 153.
   CrossRef    
4. Hu, H., G. Cheng, Y. Li and Y. Tang, 2009. Risk-based maintenance strategy and its applications in a petrochemical reforming reaction system. J. Loss Prevent. Proc. Ind., 22(4): 392-397.
   CrossRef    
5. Khan, F.I. and M.M. Haddara, 2003. Risk-Based Maintenance (RBM): A quantitative approach for maintenance/inspection scheduling and planning. J. Loss Prevent. Proc. Ind., 16(6): 561-573.
   CrossRef    
6. Khan, F.I. and M.R. Haddara, 2004. Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities. J. Hazard. Mater., 108(3): 147-159.
   CrossRef    PMid:15120868    
7. Krishnasamy, L., F. Khan and M. Haddara, 2005. Development of a Risk-Based Maintenance (RBM) strategy for a power-generating plant. J. Loss Prevent. Proc. Ind., 18(2): 69-81.
   CrossRef    
8. Lindqvist, B.H., 1999. Repairable Systems with General Repair.
   Direct Link
9. Lindqvist, B.H., 2006. On the statistical modeling and analysis of repairable systems. Statist. Sci., 21(4): 532-551.
   CrossRef    
10. Lindqvist, B.H., 2008. Maintenance of Repairable Systems. In: Khairy, A., H. Kobbacy and D.N.P. Murthy (Eds.), Complex System Maintenance Handbook, Springer, London, pp: 657, ISBN: 1848000103.
    CrossRef    
11. Majid, A., M. Amin and M. Nasir Rashid, 2011. Multi-state system availability model of electricity generation for a cogeneration district cooling plant. Asian J. Appl. Sci., 4: 431-438.
    CrossRef    
12. Márquez, A.C., 2007. The Maintenance Management Framework: Models and Methods for Complex Systems Maintenance. Springer, London, pp: 333, ISBN: 1846288215.
    
13. Mettas, A. and W. Zhao, 2005. Modeling and analysis of repairable systems with general repair. Proceeding of the IEEE Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium.
    CrossRef    
14. Modarres, M., 2006. Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools and Trends. CRC/Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton, pp: 401, ISBN: 1574447947.
    
15. Muhammad, M., A. Majid, M. Amin and N.A. Ibrahim, 2009. A case study of reliability assessment for centrifugal pumps in a petrochemical plant. Proceeding of the 4th Word Congress on Engineering Asset Management Athens, Greece, pp: 398-404.
    
16. Nasir, M., A. Majid and M. Amin, 2012. Failure Cost Model for a Multi-State Electricity Supply System with Main Utility as Redundancy. The 3rd International Conference on Production, Energy and Reliability (ICPER2012), June 12-14, Kuala Lumpur Convention Center.
    
17. Ray, S., 2007. Electrical Power Systems: Concepts, Theory and Practice. Printice-Hall of India.
    
18. Tan, Z., J. Li, Z. Wu, J. Zheng and W. He, 2011. An evaluation of maintenance strategy using risk based inspection. Safety Sci., 49(6): 852-860.
    CrossRef    
19. Wang, Y., G. Cheng, H. Hu and W. Wu, 2012. Development of a risk-based maintenance strategy using FMEA for a continuous catalytic reforming plant. J. Loss Prevent. Proc. Ind., 25(6): 958-965.
    CrossRef    

Competing interests

The authors have no competing interests.

Open Access Policy

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

Copyright

The authors have no competing interests.