Abstract

Sustainable food production in the rain-fed smallholder sector of Zimbabwe is imperative in current and future climates given the increasing proportion and role of the sector in food security. Backgrounds of the smallholder sector include low resource bases, declining soil productivity, climate variability and increasing human population. Impacts of climatic and non-climatic variables on crop production vary in different Agro-Ecological Regions (AERs). The study identifies the main climatic opportunities and constraints for sustainable rain-fed smallholder crop production systems in current and future climates. Estimated changes in rainfall and temperature by 2050 are not likely to negatively impact crop production in smallholder areas in AER I, increases in temperature may have negative impacts for most of AER III and IV. Most of AER V is likely to become unsuitable for sustainable maize production. Overall projections indicate increased differences in agricultural potential between smallholder farmers in AER I compared to those in AER II and III as well as those in AER IV and V and different management options. Proposed adaptation and coping strategies in AER I and some in AER II include intensification of agriculture and optimization of both C3 and C4 crop production while in AER III to V adoption of stress tolerant crops for family subsistence may be imperative.

Keywords:

Adaptation, climate, smallholder, sustainable production, temperature,

References

Competing interests

The authors have no competing interests.

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The authors have no competing interests.