Abstract
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Article Information:
An Imprecise Probability Model for Structural Reliability Based on Evidence and Gray Theory
Bin Suo, Ying Yan, Chao Zeng and Jun Li
Corresponding Author: Bin Suo
Submitted: May 06, 2012
Accepted: June 08, 2012
Published: January 11, 2013 |
Abstract:
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To avoid the shortages and limitations of probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability model for
structural reliability analysis in the case of limited samples for basic variables, a new imprecise probability model is
proposed. Confidence interval with a given confidence is calculated on the basis of small samples by gray theory,
which is not depending on the distribution pattern of variable. Then basic probability assignments and focal
elements are constructed and approximation methods of structural reliability based on belief and plausibility
functions are proposed in the situation that structure limit state function is monotonic and non-monotonic,
respectively. The numerical examples show that the new reliability model utilizes all the information included in
small samples and considers both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them, thus it can rationally measure the
safety of the structure and the measurement can be more and more accurate with the increasing of sample size.
Key words: Epistemic uncertainty, evidence theory, gray theory, imprecise probability model, structural reliability, ,
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Cite this Reference:
Bin Suo, Ying Yan, Chao Zeng and Jun Li, . An Imprecise Probability Model for Structural Reliability Based on Evidence and Gray Theory. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, (02): 452-457.
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ISSN (Online): 2040-7467
ISSN (Print): 2040-7459 |
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