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Abstract
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Article Information:
Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting Population for Muslim of Rural Region in Bangladesh
Rafiqul Islam
Corresponding Author: Rafiqul Islam
Submitted: 2009 August, 26
Accepted: 2009 September, 14
Published: 2010 March, 10 |
Abstract:
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In this research the population for Muslim of Rural region in Bangladesh is predicted by using the
exponential growth rate method. For this link, the information of data for the Rural Muslim population for male
and female of Bangladesh is obtained from 1991 and 2001 censuses. The predictions are computed in three
phases. In the first phase, the predictions are computed using negative exponential growth model estimated by
the Quasi-Newton method using STATISTICA for the years 1991 and 2001. Using the Cross Validation
Predictive Power (CVPP) criterion and R2, the shrinkage coefficient (λ) is constructed. The shrinkage
coefficient determines the adequacy of the first phase prediction. In the second phase, these predicted values
are used to estimate the growth rate, for different age groups, by using the exponential growth rate m ethod. In
the third phase, that is, finally considering the observed population for Muslim of Rural region in Bangladesh
for the Census year 2001 as the base population and using the estimated exponential growth rate, at different
age groups, of the second phase estimation, the predictions of the population of M uslim of Rural region are
obtained for the years 2002 through to 2021 employing exponential growth rate method successively 20 times.
Key words: Cross-validity prediction power, exponential model, exponential growth rate method, F-test mathematical modeling, Muslim population of rural region in Bangladesh, ,
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Cite this Reference:
Rafiqul Islam, . Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting Population for Muslim of Rural Region in Bangladesh. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, (2): Page No: 114-120.
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ISSN (Online): 2040-7467
ISSN (Print): 2040-7459 |
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