Abstract

In this study, we shall derive a logistic regression model for predicting the annual distribution of the proportion of road traffic casualties who die as a result of road traffic accidents in Ghana. Road traffic casualties are defined as road traffic victims who are injured or killed within 30 days of the accident. With 1991 as our reference year, we considered ten independent variables that are represented by each of the 10 years from 1992 to 2001. Using a significance level of 0.05, we show that the logistic regression coefficients for the years 1993, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 are significantly different from zero, while those of the remaining years are not significant. That is, there is little statistical justification for including coefficients for the years 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996 and 1998 in the model. The proposed model was used to estimate the number of road traffic fatalities from the year 2002 to 2011, a period of ten years and the results were compared with the actual fatalities. It was noted that all the calculated figures corresponding to the coefficients that were significantly different from 0 were within 10% of the actual figure and only one of the five coefficients, which were not significant, estimated road traffic fatality within 10% of its actual value.

Keywords:

Casualties, fatalities, injury, logistic regression, road traffics,

References

Competing interests

The authors have no competing interests.

Open Access Policy

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

Copyright

The authors have no competing interests.